Community Scripts

# ╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
# ║                  STRATEGY REQUEST LOG                       ║
# ╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝
# Generated        : 2026-05-06 02:57:20
# Model            : Gradient Boosting
# Feature Eng.     : BB (20,2.0), ATR 14 + Auto-add features: ON
# Signal / Entry   : Enter when model confidence > threshold; exit on opposite signal or SL/TP
# Optimization     : Maximize risk-adjusted return
# Risk Mgmt        : Stop loss 0.5%, Take profit 1.0%
# Risk Filter      : —
# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

# ============================================================
# Bollinger Bands Squeeze Breakout Strategy — USD/JPY 15-min
# ============================================================

# SECTION 0 — IMPORTS & CONSTANTS
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

DATA_PATH = "/root/Desktop/QuantifyMe/data/ohlc/USDJPY_15min.parquet"
START_DATE = "2025-04-24"
END_DATE   = "2026-04-24"
VALIDATION_DATE = ""
TRAIN_SPLIT = 0.7

# SECTION 1 — FEATURE ENGINEERING
def feature_engineering(df, close, open_, high, low):
    # ── Bollinger Bands (20, 2) ──────────────────────────────────────────────
    bb_period = 20
    bb_std    = 2.0

    bb_mid   = close.rolling(bb_period).mean()
    bb_sigma = close.rolling(bb_period).std(ddof=0)
    bb_upper = bb_mid + bb_std * bb_sigma
    bb_lower = bb_mid - bb_std * bb_sigma

    df["bb_mid"]   = bb_mid
    df["bb_upper"] = bb_upper
    df["bb_lower"] = bb_lower

    # Band width and %B — required features
    df["bb_width"] = (bb_upper - bb_lower) / bb_mid
    df["bb_pct"]   = (close - bb_lower) / (bb_upper - bb_lower)

    # ── ATR 14 & NATR ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
    atr_period = 14
    prev_close = close.shift(1)
    tr = pd.concat([
        high - low,
        (high - prev_close).abs(),
        (low  - prev_close).abs()
    ], axis=1).max(axis=1)

    atr  = tr.ewm(span=atr_period, min_periods=atr_period, adjust=False).mean()
    natr = atr / close

    df["atr"]  = atr
    df["natr"] = natr

    # ── Squeeze detection ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
    # Keltner Channel (EMA20 ± 1.5 × ATR) for squeeze comparison
    kc_mid   = close.ewm(span=20, adjust=False).mean()
    kc_upper = kc_mid + 1.5 * atr
    kc_lower = kc_mid - 1.5 * atr

    df["squeeze"] = np.where(
        (bb_upper < kc_upper) & (bb_lower > kc_lower), 1.0, 0.0
    )

    # Rolling squeeze count (bars in squeeze over last 10 bars)
    df["squeeze_count"] = (
        df["squeeze"].rolling(10).sum()
    )

    # Band-width z-score (how compressed is the width vs recent history)
    bw_mean = df["bb_width"].rolling(50).mean()
    bw_std  = df["bb_width"].rolling(50).std(ddof=0)
    df["bb_width_zscore"] = (df["bb_width"] - bw_mean) / (bw_std + 1e-10)

    # ── Breakout momentum ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
    # Price distance from bands, normalised by ATR
    df["dist_upper"] = (close - bb_upper) / (atr + 1e-10)
    df["dist_lower"] = (close - bb_lower) / (atr + 1e-10)
    df["dist_mid"]   = (close - bb_mid)   / (atr + 1e-10)

    # ── Rate of change ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
    for n in [1, 4, 8, 16]:
        df[f"roc_{n}"] = close.pct_change(n)

    # ── RSI 14 ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
    delta  = close.diff()
    gain   = delta.clip(lower=0)
    loss   = (-delta).clip(lower=0)
    avg_g  = gain.ewm(span=14, min_periods=14, adjust=False).mean()
    avg_l  = loss.ewm(span=14, min_periods=14, adjust=False).mean()
    rs     = avg_g / (avg_l + 1e-10)
    df["rsi_14"] = 100.0 - 100.0 / (1.0 + rs)

    # RSI normalised to [-1, 1]
    df["rsi_norm"] = (df["rsi_14"] - 50.0) / 50.0

    # ── Momentum / trend context ──────────────────────────────────────────────
    ema_9  = close.ewm(span=9,  adjust=False).mean()
    ema_21 = close.ewm(span=21, adjust=False).mean()
    ema_50 = close.ewm(span=50, adjust=False).mean()

    df["ema_9_21_diff"] = (ema_9  - ema_21) / (atr + 1e-10)
    df["ema_21_50_diff"] = (ema_21 - ema_50) / (atr + 1e-10)

    # Price position relative to EMAs
    df["close_vs_ema9"]  = (close - ema_9)  / (atr + 1e-10)
    df["close_vs_ema50"] = (close - ema_50) / (atr + 1e-10)

    # ── Volume-proxy: ATR velocity ────────────────────────────────────────────
    df["atr_roc"]  = atr.pct_change(4)

    # ── MACD-style oscillator ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
    macd_line   = close.ewm(span=12, adjust=False).mean() - close.ewm(span=26, adjust=False).mean()
    macd_signal = macd_line.ewm(span=9, adjust=False).mean()
    df["macd_hist"] = (macd_line - macd_signal) / (atr + 1e-10)

    # ── Stochastic %K (14) ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
    low_14  = low.rolling(14).min()
    high_14 = high.rolling(14).max()
    df["stoch_k"] = (close - low_14) / (high_14 - low_14 + 1e-10)

    # ── Candle body / wick features ───────────────────────────────────────────
    body     = (close - open_).abs()
    candle_range = (high - low).replace(0, np.nan)
    df["body_ratio"]  = body / candle_range
    df["upper_wick"]  = (high - pd.concat([close, open_], axis=1).max(axis=1)) / (candle_range + 1e-10)
    df["lower_wick"]  = (pd.concat([close, open_], axis=1).min(axis=1) - low) / (candle_range + 1e-10)
    df["bull_candle"]  = np.where(close > open_, 1.0, 0.0)

    # ── Lagged bb_pct and bb_width ────────────────────────────────────────────
    for lag in [1, 2, 4]:
        df[f"bb_pct_lag{lag}"]   = df["bb_pct"].shift(lag)
        df[f"bb_width_lag{lag}"] = df["bb_width"].shift(lag)

    # ── Band width momentum (is it expanding?) ────────────────────────────────
    df["bb_width_chg1"] = df["bb_width"].diff(1)
    df["bb_width_chg4"] = df["bb_width"].diff(4)

    # ── Hour / session features ───────────────────────────────────────────────
    df["hour_sin"] = np.sin(2 * np.pi * df.index.hour / 24)
    df["hour_cos"] = np.cos(2 * np.pi * df.index.hour / 24)
    df["dow_sin"]  = np.sin(2 * np.pi * df.index.dayofweek / 5)
    df["dow_cos"]  = np.cos(2 * np.pi * df.index.dayofweek / 5)

    # ── Fill NaN from warm-up ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
    df = df.bfill().ffill()

    return df


# SECTION 2 — STRATEGY CONFIG
def strategy_config():
    return {
        "title": "USD/JPY BB Squeeze Breakout (GBM)",

        "model_type": "GradientBoostingClassifier",
        "model_params": {
            "n_estimators":     400,
            "max_depth":        4,
            "learning_rate":    0.04,
            "subsample":        0.75,
            "min_samples_leaf": 20,
            "max_features":     "sqrt",
            "validation_fraction": 0.1,
            "n_iter_no_change": 30,
            "tol":              1e-4,
            "random_state":     42,
        },

        "signal_threshold": 0.55,

        "direction":     "both",
        "stop_loss":     0.005,
        "take_profit":   0.010,
        "cooldown":      0,
        "max_positions": 1,
        "on_opposite":   "reverse",

        "session_filter": [6, 20],
        "min_atr":        0.0003,
        "trend_filter":   None,

        "target_horizon": 4,

        "objective": (
            "Maximize risk-adjusted return (Sharpe). "
            "GradientBoostingClassifier chosen for strong performance on tabular "
            "financial data with moderate feature counts. Deeper ensemble (400 "
            "estimators, depth 4) with early stopping captures non-linear BB "
            "squeeze patterns. Subsample=0.75 and sqrt features reduce overfitting. "
            "SL 0.5% / TP 1.0% gives 1:2 R:R ratio. Session filter 06-20 UTC covers "
            "London + NY sessions where USD/JPY liquidity is highest."
        ),
        "notes": (
            "Core signal: BB squeeze (narrow band width inside Keltner Channel) "
            "followed by band expansion. Features include band width z-score, "
            "breakout direction (dist_upper/lower), RSI, MACD histogram, "
            "stochastic %K, EMA spreads, candle structure, and lagged BB features. "
            "NATR used as min_atr filter to avoid low-volatility noise trades. "
            "Horizon=4 bars (1 hour on 15-min data) aligns with typical "
            "post-squeeze expansion duration."
        ),
    }

# ╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
# ║                  STRATEGY REQUEST LOG                       ║
# ╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝
# Generated        : 2026-05-06 02:01:39
# Model            : Gradient Boosting
# Feature Eng.     : BB (20,2.0), ATR 14 + Auto-add features: ON
# Signal / Entry   : Enter when model confidence > threshold; exit on opposite signal or SL/TP
# Optimization     : Maximize risk-adjusted return
# Risk Mgmt        : Stop loss 0.5%, Take profit 1.0%
# Risk Filter      : —
# ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

# ============================================================
# SECTION 0 — IMPORTS & CONSTANTS
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

DATA_PATH = "/root/Desktop/QuantifyMe/data/ohlc/USDJPY_15min.parquet"
START_DATE = "2025-04-24"
END_DATE   = "2026-04-24"
VALIDATION_DATE = ""
TRAIN_SPLIT = 0.7

# SECTION 1 — FEATURE ENGINEERING
def feature_engineering(df, close, open_, high, low):
    # ── Bollinger Bands (period=20, std_dev=2.0) ──────────────────────────────
    bb_period = 20
    bb_std    = 2.0

    bb_mid   = close.rolling(bb_period).mean()
    bb_sigma = close.rolling(bb_period).std(ddof=0)
    bb_upper = bb_mid + bb_std * bb_sigma
    bb_lower = bb_mid - bb_std * bb_sigma

    df["bb_mid"]   = bb_mid
    df["bb_upper"] = bb_upper
    df["bb_lower"] = bb_lower

    # bb_width: normalised band width (volatility proxy)
    df["bb_width"] = (bb_upper - bb_lower) / bb_mid

    # bb_pct: position of close within the band [0, 1]
    band_range = bb_upper - bb_lower
    df["bb_pct"] = (close - bb_lower) / band_range

    # Distance from close to mid in units of band width
    df["bb_dist_mid"] = (close - bb_mid) / bb_mid

    # ── ATR (period=14) ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
    atr_period = 14
    prev_close = close.shift(1)
    tr = pd.concat([
        high - low,
        (high - prev_close).abs(),
        (low  - prev_close).abs()
    ], axis=1).max(axis=1)

    atr  = tr.ewm(span=atr_period, min_periods=atr_period, adjust=False).mean()
    natr = atr / close

    df["atr"]  = atr
    df["natr"] = natr

    # ── Momentum / trend features ─────────────────────────────────────────────
    # Rate of change at multiple horizons
    for n in [1, 4, 8, 16]:
        df[f"roc_{n}"] = close.pct_change(n)

    # RSI (14)
    rsi_period = 14
    delta  = close.diff()
    gain   = delta.clip(lower=0)
    loss   = (-delta).clip(lower=0)
    avg_gain = gain.ewm(span=rsi_period, min_periods=rsi_period, adjust=False).mean()
    avg_loss = loss.ewm(span=rsi_period, min_periods=rsi_period, adjust=False).mean()
    rs  = avg_gain / (avg_loss + 1e-10)
    rsi = 100 - (100 / (1 + rs))
    df["rsi_14"] = rsi

    # RSI derived: distance from 50 (centred, normalised)
    df["rsi_dev"] = (rsi - 50) / 50

    # ── MACD (12, 26, 9) ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
    ema12 = close.ewm(span=12, adjust=False).mean()
    ema26 = close.ewm(span=26, adjust=False).mean()
    macd_line   = ema12 - ema26
    macd_signal = macd_line.ewm(span=9, adjust=False).mean()
    macd_hist   = macd_line - macd_signal

    df["macd_line"]   = macd_line
    df["macd_signal"] = macd_signal
    df["macd_hist"]   = macd_hist

    # ── Trend (SMA 50) ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
    sma50 = close.rolling(50).mean()
    df["sma_50"]        = sma50
    df["close_vs_sma50"] = (close - sma50) / sma50   # normalised distance

    # ── Volume / candle structure features ────────────────────────────────────
    body      = (close - open_).abs()
    candle_rng = high - low
    df["body_ratio"]  = body / (candle_rng + 1e-10)   # body as fraction of range
    df["upper_wick"]  = (high  - pd.concat([close, open_], axis=1).max(axis=1)) / (candle_rng + 1e-10)
    df["lower_wick"]  = (pd.concat([close, open_], axis=1).min(axis=1) - low)   / (candle_rng + 1e-10)
    df["candle_dir"]  = np.where(close > open_, 1.0, -1.0)  # bullish / bearish bar

    # ── Lagged bb_pct & rsi (to give the model recent history) ───────────────
    for lag in [1, 2, 3]:
        df[f"bb_pct_lag{lag}"] = df["bb_pct"].shift(lag)
        df[f"rsi_lag{lag}"]    = df["rsi_14"].shift(lag)
        df[f"macd_hist_lag{lag}"] = df["macd_hist"].shift(lag)

    # ── Volatility regime flag ────────────────────────────────────────────────
    natr_ma = natr.rolling(50).mean()
    df["vol_regime"] = np.where(natr > natr_ma, 1.0, 0.0)   # 1 = high-vol regime

    # ── BB squeeze detection ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
    bb_width_ma = df["bb_width"].rolling(50).mean()
    df["bb_squeeze"] = np.where(df["bb_width"] < bb_width_ma, 1.0, 0.0)

    # ── Mean-reversion signal strength ────────────────────────────────────────
    # Positive → oversold (close below lower band), Negative → overbought
    df["mr_signal"] = 0.5 - df["bb_pct"]   # centred: +0.5 at lower band, -0.5 at upper

    # ── Fill NaN from warm-up ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
    df = df.bfill().ffill()

    return df

# SECTION 2 — STRATEGY CONFIG
def strategy_config():
    return {
        "title":            "USD/JPY BB Mean-Reversion + ATR Gradient Boost",
        "model_type":       "GradientBoostingClassifier",
        "model_params":     {
            "n_estimators":      500,
            "max_depth":         4,
            "learning_rate":     0.03,
            "subsample":         0.8,
            "min_samples_leaf":  20,
            "max_features":      "sqrt",
            "validation_fraction": 0.1,
            "n_iter_no_change":  30,
            "tol":               1e-4,
            "random_state":      42,
        },
        "signal_threshold": 0.55,
        "direction":        "both",
        "stop_loss":        0.005,
        "take_profit":      0.010,
        "cooldown":         0,
        "max_positions":    1,
        "on_opposite":      "reverse",
        "session_filter":   None,
        "min_atr":          None,
        "trend_filter":     None,
        "target_horizon":   4,
        "objective": (
            "Maximise Sharpe ratio via a Gradient Boosting classifier trained on "
            "Bollinger Band position (bb_pct), normalised bandwidth (bb_width), "
            "ATR/NATR, RSI, MACD histogram, candle structure, and lagged features. "
            "GBM chosen for its ability to capture non-linear interactions between "
            "volatility (ATR) and mean-reversion (BB) signals. n_iter_no_change "
            "acts as early stopping to prevent overfitting on the 15-min USDJPY series. "
            "SL=0.5% / TP=1.0% gives a 1:2 risk-reward; threshold=0.55 reduces noise trades."
        ),
        "notes": (
            "Bollinger Bands are the primary mean-reversion anchor; ATR/NATR filter "
            "entries to adequate volatility bars. RSI and MACD provide momentum context "
            "to avoid fading strong trends. Lagged features (up to 3 bars) give the model "
            "short-term regime memory without look-ahead. vol_regime and bb_squeeze flags "
            "allow the model to differentiate trending vs. ranging conditions automatically. "
            "No session filter applied — USDJPY is liquid across Asian and European sessions."
        ),
    }